Interview with a Layer

The Mystic Layer

In this week Mark caught up with the Mystic Layer, not his real name of which we can't reveal because of his standing in the racing and betting industry. But we are sure you will welcome his mystic words of advice for Donkeyites.

Q. Why be a layer?
Many a time in the past, I had spotted a false favourite but could only back others against it. Now I can lay it. You need a high success rate (mine is 80%). But I also mix and match bets and lays: in most big fields, the favourite is vulnerable. For instance, it was great to lay the favourite at 5-1 and have 26 other horses running for me in the Stewards’ Cup. Or to put it another way, theoretically, if the handicapper had done his job, that 5-1 favourite was really 26-1. Lay him!

Q. Do you remember your first lay?
I am old enough to have seen Arkle and Sea Bird (my first bet was with a sixpenny piece from my pocket-money!) but the coming of the exchanges is the biggest betting event I can recall. My own betting has changed since their arrival: only the successful few can call betting an ‘investment’ but I certainly now see laying as an investment.I now tend to use laying to ‘buy’ my money for betting; in other words I use the proceeds of a series of successful lays as my bank. Even in a single event, like that Stewards’ Cup, eight times out of 10 my lay or lays will pay for my win bets in the same race.

Q. What was your best ever lay?
Among my best recent lays was Haradasun in the Lockinge. He came here from Australia with a tall reputation and opened favourite at around 5-2 for the Newbury race.I laid him early on three basic principles: firstly, that opposing Press hype is one of the most profitable things you can do; secondly, regarding the horse itself, I doubted it had had time to acclimatise; thirdly, Aidan O’Brien is a strategist with his horses, not a man in a hurry to get one in the bag in double-quick time.I remember the pleasure of watching Haradasun drift like a raft to 9-1 and then run a ‘next time’ race. Of course, I backed him next time when he won, so I had two ‘winners’ instead of one: without exchange betting, I would have had only one win out of it and maybe lost money trying to find the winner from among the other runners in the Lockinge..
One of the best pieces of advice given me years ago by the professional Paul Major, author of Horse Sense, was: never back horses below ‘C level’; in modern currency, that’s Class 3.? You simply can’t trust horses to run to form in low-grade races. Of course, I turned that on its head once I was able to lay: since they are not to be trusted, low-grade animals therefore make very good lays when they are short prices!

At the top level, I had horses ‘running free’ for me in most of the English Classics in 2008; if you are confident you know what is going to win a trial, back it ante-post for its Classic engagement before the trial is run. Then lay off when the odds shorten.
Another favourite lay is a horse that’s a much reduced trade because it’s with a top trainer whom the backers will ‘follow blind’. Dermot Weld is top man at the Galway Festival. Add Ruby Walsh in the saddle and you have an automatic favourite. But even Weld and Walsh were unlikely to score on good ground with a one-paced 20-furlong hurdler brought back to two miles on the Flat (ching, ching)! Noble Crusader was a beaten favourite twice in five days at 15-8 and 6-4.

Q. Would you lay anything?
I am a racing man but I will have a bet on anything if the price is right.

Q. What is your Golden rule of laying?
Never back horses - or lay them - unless you have studied the entire field and priced up (decided on the odds you will accept about each horse).? Don’t be dictated to by stats or headlines or by the market: learn when those indicators are reliable and when you can bet against them and use them to your advantage. Remember you are privileged to be able to trade in this market-place. Be flippant and you’ll get burned.

Q. And finally, have you any advice for Donkeyites?
A lay requires someone at the receiving end to act as bookmaker, as it were. That’s another trader you’re dealing with! So, when you reckon you’ve found the donkey of the day, think twice: are you sure you can make an ass out of the guy on the other end? Or is he taking you for a ride?