Interview with a Layer
Jimmakos
This week Mark interviews Jimmakos who hails from Greece and runs his own very popular website www.jimmakos.com Jimmakos started trading on UK Horse Racing on Betfair around 2004 and has developed various trading strategies on sports betting. As well as having and extensive knowledge of gambling and trading, Jimmakos is a keen poker player and was also banned in 2003 from several casinos in Greece due to his successful run!
Why be a layer?
Being a layer means that you have more options to manoeuvre, thus minimizing the risk while maximizing your profit. In horse racing specifically, laying can be extremely more risk-free in comparison with backing a horse, especially in-running. If a punter sees his horse falling during the race, 99,99% of the time can’t do anything to save his wager. On the other hand, a layer is able to close his position upon watching his horse running really well, which leads into minimizing the potential losses. He has a lot more time to react and, besides, the race can’t end prematurely for the layer. Until the horse crosses the finish line, he has plenty of weapons in his arsenal.
Do you remember your first lay?
My first lay must have been in horse racing, although I started by betting on football. During my first steps, I needed a little time to get the hang of it and really understand the concept of laying, as it was a quite fresh idea. However, I really can’t remember what the lay was exactly, I can assure you though that it must have been a tiny amount compared to what was going to happen!
I first get into gambling playing blackjack in casinos. Mind you, I really liked playing cards since I was 5 or 6 years old. I continually carried a deck of cards with me, in case I met someone willing to play, mainly family friends and schoolmates. So, playing cards in the casinos came rather natural! Still, I didn’t enter a casino until I knew I had studied everything I could found online that could help me be a winner. I learnt how to count cards, how to shuffle track and generally how to make money out of that game. Only then I began playing blackjack and eventually after a year I was banned from my local casino. I pursued for some time this profession but it was obvious that it would be a difficult one. Then I began exploring the web for more ways to profit, mainly online since I have seen that there was a lot of free information available on the internet. While I was examining stock markets and financial trading, I bumped into the betting exchanges. Having some previous experience of sports betting mainly in my county, I was totally thrilled with the huge opportunities available to the gambler!
Betting exchanges have been a revolution, both for the punter, the layer and the sports trader. They indeed changed the whole way of thinking. In my opinion, a new betting system or trading strategy is born every minute with all those gamblers trying to exploit every little inch of edge! I honestly think that betting exchanges changed everything for the best, but most importantly made people think out of the box, they made them expand their horizons.
Betting exchanges constantly evolve and adopt every new trend while they make enormous efforts into fulfilling every request. Market depth, detailed charts, fast bet execution and so on. Additionally, as time goes by they also become more trustworthy and are able to produce stable platforms, which was really a bad memory of the past.
Regarding layers, I can’t think of any improvement, that will make a big impact in one’s game.
What was your best ever lay?
Well, my best lay was surely an 800+ euro profitable lay which of course wasn’t actually to end up in such a way! During my first days of sports trading, I was placing laying bets mainly on favourites with the intension to close my positions before the start of the race or just after the off. I must have placed a lay about 800 euros at 1.80 or so odds. My available bankroll was around 2 or 3,000 euros so I wasn’t going to risk 600 on a bet. The race began, the horse’s odds started drifting immediately and I thought to let it run for a while and probably score a big win. The drift never hesitated for a second and I never closed my lay. The race ended and I was looking at a 800+ green amount on all horses except that one which of course had finished in the last places.
…and what was your worst?
My worst was certainly when “Unreal” won a race at Sandown on 10th of September 2004. I was trading it while it was the favourite to win the race. The odds were around 4.0 – 4.5 and I was continually laying it and backing a couple of ticks above, since the odds were sort of drifting. However, that wasn’t the case and the odds started falling and I was closing my positions with small losses (remember, minimizing losses is everything). Suddenly, and me having an open lay of around 1,100 euros, the race was off. Unreal ran pretty well and there wasn’t really a good chance to close my position. The odds reached 1.01 and when the “suspended” sign came on, I was looking at a 4 figure loss while my heart must have reached 200 beats. I took a screenshot since it was my biggest hit I had ever taken, continued trading throughout the day (it was actually the first race of the day) and when finished, I headed off for a walk.
During that month I had 2 more losses of that kind and only then I applied some rules to my laying/trading, which proved to be excellent choices in order to prevent such big losses in the future.
Would you lay anything?
I would lay anything which has value. I would lay anything that is traded at 2.0 while I calculate its true probability below 45%. I would lay a horse at 10.0 if I know the probability the horse to win is below 7%.? Value betting is what will make money in the long run. On the other hand, I can take advantage of other possible edges. For example you can take advantage of the rumours and news. If the whole web is discussing on laying a certain horse, I would make sure I would lay it early so that I can exploit the over-exaggerating public reaction when they all will be laying it, sending the odds well over the true odds. Then I would trade out taking full advantage of the public opinion, without even knowing if it was right or wrong.
I believe the best sports for layers other than horse racing should be football and tennis in that order. While I like F1 very much, I haven’t placed a single bet on it as it seems to me a rather violent betting market! Anything can happen in a matter of seconds.
Dead certain lay? Ha, if only there was a dead certain bet in general. If anyone claims that, then he MUST risk all his money, all his bankroll. After all, it’s a “certain thing”, right? Well, I haven’t yet known of anyone who would risk his entire bankroll (sell houses, cars, liquidate his assets) on a single bet, so I conclude there isn’t such thing as a sure thing. Of course, there are bets or lays in specific that have a big probability to come out as winners, no argument there. But they all come down to value actually.
I almost always trade out of a lay to secure small profits, just like I do when I want to minimize my losses.
What is your Golden rule of laying?
I’d rather lay at any odds below 6.0 and always having the same liability regardless of the odds. Say I lay 1000 units at 4.0. Since I risk 3,000 I would lay 3,000 when I’ll be laying at 2.0. In the same way, I would be laying 6,000 at 1.50 and so. I also like stop loss orders. I would very rarely let my lay run without some short of safety net. I would place stop loss orders while I would have a plan on how to make my maximum profit if all goes well. Oh, and I always close my positions 30-60 seconds before the off in case I trade before the start of the event. Always!
And finally, have you any advice for Donkeyites?
I would advise reading a bit about stock markets, charting techniques and money management. That was all really useful for me back when I was starting and helped me stay on track. I guess you all keep hearing that money management is almost everything and I won’t disagree with that. If you want to be profitable and remain winners you have to devote time and effort just like in any other profession/hobby. Design your plan of action in any possible scenario, so that you’ll be ready and know what to do in any circumstance, knowing before “it” happens how to react is a tremendous aid. Then, you’ll be definitely sure you have made the proper choice. Time is a luxury in gambling, so make the most out of it!