The first realisation that professional punters made after the arrival of the exchanges was that they didn't actually have to get the result of an event correct. They could actually get it largely right,if that makes sense, and then close out their profit. Such was the liquidity of the in running markets, regardless of the sport that punters were able to lock in a profit, three furlongs from the finish or with twenty minutes to play in the football match, walk away and move onto to the next even
While everyone appreciates that there is better value to be had on the exchanges the increased value only really kicks in at the mid to higher end of the market, In other words you will get 11/10 about and evens chance with the fixed odds boys, but you won’t get 5/2. The significance of available price is that if you have backed over the odds you are far more likely to get better value as the event progressed.
What I am therefore encouraging here is a three point strategy:
1.Selections have a chance of winning event or at least will run well for a long period.
2.Selections are trading at substantially higher odds than you believe to be the case.
3.Evaluate at what point you want to get out of the bet and trade accordingly, regardless of events on screen during the event.
This might appear to be an anathema to form students and to those that have had racing as a hobby for years. This is the fundamental difference – with this strategy you are not looking to select a winner necessarily, in actual fact you would prefer for the horse to trade at 1.01 and get beaten with this stratagem.
This policy is all about profit, turn a profit in every event or at least in the vast majority and long term you will make money. This is not about bragging rights down the pub, its about slowly but surely developing a system and obstinately sticking with it.
Lets look at an example Tartan Bearer in the Derby was trading at about 7.0 before the off but had an SP of 5/1. So the punters on the exchanges have nicked a bit of value already. However even though it’s the Derby we aren’t going to get carried away here and we are going to stick rigidly to our guns of looking to eke a profit in every event. So as soon as this horse hits 3.4 we are out.
The race starts and we have had £100 on this fella at 7.0 and in the early exchanges he’s running well and there is not much in running volatility. However, as the horses hit? the straight we are starting to see his price contract dramatically and as he hits the front he is trading at 3.2, we are laying at 3.2 for £200 and are matched. We are in a no lose situation and as the horses drive to the line New Approach just chins Tartan Bearer. Ok so we have just won £100 – the £100 pounds we had on Tartan Bearer is lost but we have won £200 on laying him so we have scored £100 on the event.
We locked in a price and were lucky that the race panned out as we hoped it would with Tartan Bearer threatening but not quite delivering. This is the strategy for in running players. It may not be for everyone though.
There are other strategies, ante-post, morning of the race and so on. The fundamental however is that the punter himself realises that he is here to make a profit, nothing more. Gone are the wild celebrations, dancing around the sofa when your horse jumps the last twelve clear, because you will have already laid off before they got to that stage.
Yes its clinical, yes it seems to be a drole way in which to make money, but it is one of the guaranteed ways of delivering profit. Just think profit, take it and move on. Statistically take notes and reflect on how much profit you are making when adopting a profit only approach and how much you are losing if you watch them run to the line.
There’s always a big difference.