A Guide To Laying
Maximising your returns in a volatile market
We talked about the importance of value earlier and how laying at optimum odds will maximise your earning potential; if you can regularly lay a runner at 3/1 which you calculate should be 9/2, then by definition you will return a handsome profit over time (as long as your calculations are reliable, of course!). The problem with doing this is knowing when to press the "Lay" button and for what stake.
Take the following example ~ in the 2yo maiden at Dundalk, you have priced up Three Legged Wonder at 10/1 and don’t fancy its chances (moreover you’re reliably informed that he’s been working like a drain at home), but you know that because it is regally bred and in the care of an extremely fashionable trainer, it is liable to be well backed and is priced up at 5/1 on the “Tissue”. Let’s say that you are happy to lay the beast at 8/1 or shorter and that the opening exchange price is 6.8 to back, 7.4 to lay for small stakes. You suspect that there may be early support from those not so clued up as you but that rumours of his poor homework will eventually filter through to the track and the horse will drift considerably in the on course market. You have two obvious choices in this scenario ~ go over the top and put in your maximum lay at 9 since that is your acceptable price, or take the 7.4 and leave your bid in at that price, figuring that’s where the mid-point of the market will be and hoping for the best.
If you go over the top, you increase the likelihood of your bet being accepted, but you give away potential value whereas the latter course of action increases your theoretical value but minimises your chance of getting the full bet matched. If the horse drifts significantly from his opening price and you end up laying your full stake at 9.0 then you would justifiably be feeling like the proverbial early bird who got the worm.? However, if the expected mug money arrived and the horse traded at lower than his opening price, then you would feel slightly sheepish about laying over the odds, even if the lay was successful. We all know that making money in the long term isn’t about the individual victories, but maximising profit from the successes which will insulate us against the inevitable losses.
In the words of Tony Blair, there is a third way.? It is possible, using a degree of patience, to take advantage of market volatility to lay your full at an even better price. Imagine that the on course bookmakers, being careful of the connections, chalk Three Legged Wonder up at 9/2 to see if anyone bites. All of a sudden, there’s a bit more liquidity on the exchange and the quote is 6.4/6.6 ~ you can now lay a considerably bigger bet at almost a point shorter than the tissue. If you are right about the horse’s ability then there will be no takers at the miserly opening show and the 9/2 will quickly become? 11/2 and 6/1 and in the absence of takers will drift further; meanwhile this drift will be even more dramatic on the exchanges and double figure prices will be the order of the day very quickly. Having the combination of the patience needed to wait until the opening show and the balls to go in a point or so above the on course price will have seen you well rewarded.? On another day, of course, the bookies may have less fear and open up at 8/1 and you will struggle to lay a bet at a price which is acceptable to you. The key is being familiar enough with the mechanics of individual markets to know when to be patient, and when to take the money and run.
Value laying, as we’ve said is about maximising value, and to do so the shrewd layer must be able to read the market on more than one level ~ it’s not enough to ask if the available price is value to lay, but to have a strong idea whether that price is liable to drift or contract.? Let’s examine standard horseracing markets; I would subdivide the market into two phases, the tissue market (the early price market or morning line as our compatriots stateside would say) which is in essence a theoretical market and what I would term the normalised market in which the layers and players have backed their opinions with hard cash and beaten that theory into a more robust and liquid market. Layers need to treat these markets as separate entities although each provide their own unique opportunities.? There are more ricks in the tissue, but considerably less liquidity to take advantage and you should never overexpose yourself on a particular selection; I would recommend betting to no more than 10-20% of your maximum exposure on this market. Enjoy the easy pickings, but don’t bite on someone else’s hook!