A Guide To Laying
A Few Myths Debunked
1.As a Layer, I'm being the bookie and getting value. Don't believe the hype. One of the rallying calls of the betting exchanges is that you can now "be the bookie" and make money by picking losers. Stuff and nonsense, sir! As a Layer, you choose which horses (dogs, golfers etc) you want to back against ~ laying an outcome is identical to backing that outcome NOT to happen. Don't believe that the fact that you are taking on favourites makes you somehow akin to bookmakers and therefore able to pr
2.Layers are clever and Backers are mugs. As above; Layers and Backers are simply opposing punters in the exchange environment ~ neither has an inherent advantage and while Layers will have higher strike rates, strike rates don’t pay mortgages. Profit pays mortgages.
3.As a Layer, you should have a strike rate of 9 out of 10 successful lays. I have read this from at least three supposed professional layers and it’s cobblers.? As I’ve said above, strike rates are meaningless until they are analysed according to their profitability or return on investment (ROI). The expected strike rate depends entirely on what you are laying ~ if you are laying on Asian Handicap markets for example, you are unlikely to exceed 50% outright winners and should still make a profit. If however you are laying several runners in big field handicaps, you will need to exceed that 90% strike rate to break even. Concentrate in the margin between the market price and the true price and if you are getting 15-20% of value then you will do well. If you have a very strong handle on all the variables (football betting is especially kind to the mathematically minded) then that percentage can fall below 10% with profits continuing to accumulate. The most successful punter I know bets enormous sums with an expected edge of 7% or less simply because he knows that this edge is hugely reliable. Betting on horseracing has many more imponderables and you must maintain a high theoretical margin to ensure regular profits.
4.Never lay at odds of 4/1 or bigger. Are you seeing a pattern yet? Various respected systems urge their followers not to lay above certain parameters and that is broadly sensible advice, but scratching at the surface exposes that this advice, although sound to a degree, is one dimensional. Essentially it is based on a method of laying overbet favourites and can only be successful if applied to short priced selections. The truth is that you should never lay outside of your own parameters of value, but you will gain your edge by finding your own angle. While laying favourites is the angle that most novice layers will apply themselves to, bad value can very well appear outside of favourites, and if you are among the minority of layers willing to look down the betting order, then you can find a fresher angle and better value therein. One piece of advice is not to lay big outsiders to boost your strike rate and your confidence ~ a winning lay on a “rag” will earn you little but they all win occasionally and when you get stung it may decimate your bank.
5.Favourites win 33% of races, so you should only lay favourites shorter than 2/1. Luckily this one doesn’t get trotted out too often, but if you think it makes sense then you shouldn’t be let loose on a betting exchange for the good of your health! The extreme version of this bonkers theory is that if the first five favourites of a meeting lose then you should have your maximum bet on the last favourite as it is statistically more likely to win. Crikey!